Week 5 in the NFL

Well it just ended…on a Tuesday, but here are my thoughts on Week 5 in the NFL.

Lamar Jackson is hurt.  He has to be because that performance was abysmal despite the impressive 27-3 scoreline against the Bengals.   The Ravens put together a few decent drives in the first half to put themselves up 17-0 by halftime, but other than the two short throws Lamar made on the touchdowns, he looked entirely out of sync and downright uncomfortable with running in general.  Against the usually stout Ravens offensive line, the Bengals made headway with their veteran slew of pass rushers and consistently put pressure on Lamar to make spectacular on the run throws or take off running himself, neither of which he did very much at all.  After the second touchdown at the end of the 1st quarter, here were the yards and results of the Ravens next eight drives.

Yards	Result
4	Turnover on downs
14	Punt
43	Interception
34	Missed field goal
8	Punt
38	Punt
44	Field goal
8	Punt

The Raven’s defense smothered the Bengals so they didn’t have to match scoring, but the lead right out of the beginning of the game is what won it.  Lamar almost threw about 3 interceptions during the game and the one he did manage to turn over in the 2nd quarter was the culmination of the previous few plays.  He seemed unable to get out of the pocket properly to make plays.  Lamar had a minor knee issue during the week, but it seemed to the team as soreness and he had minor limitations in practice all week.  The Ravens designed the entire offense around his skill set and when they looked vulnerable against the Chiefs two weeks ago and the Titans last season, Lamar can’t run the offense if they can’t control the running game.  For some reason even with a 17-0 lead going into halftime, Lamar threw the ball 37 times for the game, completing barely over 50% of his passes and plenty of those passes were in the second half.  They ran the offense like they were down to the Titans last year, despite actually having a sizable lead and Lamar looked really unsure of what to do when the script broke down.   He scrambled well as he always does, but his hesitation to take off and run seemed both consistent with a game plan for him to throw the ball and an injury.  No stat line better illustrates this than Lamar’s rushing line for the game: 2 carries, 3 yards with a long of 7.  So he actually had one attempt for 7 yards and one for minus 4.  Full disclosure as a Ravens fan, I believe the team wanted to see what Lamar could do with his arm and told him to play like he was losing in a playoff game and maybe they thought a stinker of a game like this was the perfect testing ground, maybe.  As a Ravens fan though, the results underwhelmed immensely and if the experiment faltered like this against the Bengals in October, I’m not optimistic about it in the playoffs.

Well after not believing in anything the Raiders were doing from an offensive standpoint, they shit all over my vaunted Kansas City defense to the tune of 40 points.  Interestingly enough, Derek Carr actually slung the ball around a bit, after largely taking a game manager Alex Smith type role, avoiding mistakes and pulling out just enough for their wins against the Saints and the Panthers.  Those two wins now seem a little better as both those NFC South teams look more than competent.  As many have said, Gruden isn’t married to Carr as his quarterback, however given how much money the Raiders paid Carr when he catfished us with that MVP caliber season, they’ve been reluctant to pull the plug the last couple of years.  Carr himself hasn’t really been bad the last couple of years, just underwhelming.  When Gruden took over a few years with a virtually lifetime contract, many expected his ten years away from the game would show.  His first two years, marked by shedding of stars like Kahlil Mack and Amari Cooper for draft stockpiles and some weird selections with those draft picks (Kolton Miller, who’s been meh, Josh Jacobs an RB in the first round and Clelin Ferrell, a second round graded defensive end with the 4th overall pick) indicated that Gruden was building a team to compete in 2005 with a potentially 300 carry running back, a QB charged with taking very few chances and a potentially overly physical defense (seriously  Jonathan Abrams is a walking targeting penalty).  In year three, much like the Jaguars a few years ago, it seems to be working.  The Raiders are now 3-2 with losses to the Bills and the Patriots, two good teams and wins over the Panthers, Saints and now Chiefs that definitely impress.  Much like Blake Bortles three years ago, Carr doesn’t necessarily lack physical talent, but what Bortles lacked in intellectual understanding of NFL defenses, Carr seems to have a much better grasp of.  On Sunday, the Raiders again ran Jacobs 23 times, however they also finally started to get speedster receiver Henry Ruggs, their first selection this year, going down the field.  Carr doesn’t lack arm talent, his coaches just haven’t trusted him enough over his tenure to go deep consistently.  I still think they don’t, but on Sunday they unleashed Carr as he gathered his highest average depth of target, intended air yards and completed air yards per completion of the season.  Ruggs still only had two receptions, but after no offseason, Gruden may finally be comfortable implementing measures to counter the stacked boxes that Jacobs would be facing down every week.  I don’t think we’re looking at Jaguarsesque run for the Raiders here, the Raiders don’t nearly have the defense the Jags did.  Taking down the Chiefs though isn’t a feat many have conquered recently.  

Last night, Drew Brees played one of the worst halves of football I’ve seen from a quarterback.  Maybe it’s the burden of expectations, because we all of course remember Nathan Peterman’s infamous 5 interception first half in 2017.  Brees didn’t look old like Phil Rivers and Tom Brady have this year, he looked like he forgot how to play football.  I won’t re-address all of the Brees downfield passing stats over the past couple of years, everyone knows that he hasn’t been the deep ball slinger recently.  He’s at least been able to complete short and intermediate passes and he has the talent around him to make effective use of those plays.  Throughout the first half, Twitter erupted with calls for Jameis Winston, the slinger with a cannon deep ball.  As the first half waned, Brees peered away from his slumber to lead the Saints on a drive capped off with a vintage Brees rushing TD where his short little self jumped over a pile of metahumans to score.  In the third quarter, when the Chargers looked downright scary, Brees took his game back a few years ago and showed the flaming rook Justin Herbert how to close out a game.  With a vintage throw to Kamara, along with an incredible catch, the Saints capitalized on a red zone trip to tie the game with less than a minute left.  Herbert was magnificent all night, save for that last drive in regulation where Anthony Lynn immediately lost confidence after the young giant almost threw a bad pick.  Herbert just about did enough with time running out to set up a 50 yard field goal which the Chargers missed because they’re the Chargers.  Brees then led the Saints to a field goal in overtime that the Chargers couldn’t match.  Despite Herbert’s brilliance all night, the old gunslinger pulled out a classic performance with that pass to Kamara and reminded us of his greatness in the comeback.  This Saints team has flaws, especially on defense, but Brees gave those of us who’ve been fond of this team for years hope that he may just have one run left to get that elusive second ring.  I can’t say he’s looked better than Peyton Manning in that noodle armed season, but Peyton also pulled out just enough along the way in that season, especially the AFC Championship.  Maybe Monday night was a spectre only to eventually be filled in by Jameis or maybe it’s a reminder that the truly great ones always go out with a bang.

When the Falcons released Devonta Freeman this offseason and signed Todd Gurley to a prove it deal, I like many thought they were just trading one worn down, injury prone running back for another.  Weirdly enough, Freeman only signed with a team when Saquon Barkley went down with injury and has looked spry since.  Gurley on the other hand, while stuck on a bad team after almost glory on the Rams looks pretty good for someone the Rams moved on from easily only a season after he was the focal point of a Super Bowl appearing offense.  His chronic knee issue became so untenable that his release appeared reasonable to anyone who watched him during his last season in LA.  This season, despite the Falcons lack of winning, Gurley looks better than he did last season and it partly lies with the fact that he’s going to wear down as the season goes, however it may also be that he’s playing with a better QB, better receivers and better offensive line than he maybe ever has.  His ability to shed tackles, combining strength and elusiveness that’s defined his career in the NFL appears to have resurged in these first five weeks of the season. Last year Gurley averaged only 57 yards a game and 3.84 yards per attempt, sealing his fate for release.   From a statistical standpoint this year, he just had his best game with 121 yards rushing on 14 carries, adding 4 catches for 29 yards, but he’s also well above last year averaging 75 yards a game and almost 4.8 yards per carry.  Obviously it’s young in the season so we have to take that into account, however some of the advanced stats show that Gurley isn’t just padding stats on a non-Jared Goff offense.  Last year, Gurley ranked behind the likes of Sony Michel, Ronald “Can’t passblock” Jones and Gus Edwards in yards after contact and sat at 41st out 47 qualified running backs in yards after contact per rush.  His broken tackle numbers were fair given how bad he was after contact last year, but those stats indicate that while his injury may not have been worse enough for him to miss time, it clearly ate into his effectiveness as a runner.  This year, through five games, Gurley looks much better in both of these categories ranking 7th in yards after contact and 12th in yards after contact per rush with 2.6.  He’s also third in broken tackles, interestingly trailing Mike Davis and Antonio Gibson.  Gurley’s never been a speed back; he ran a 4.52 40 time out of college and his NFL career bore that out with his talent for breaking tackles as the key to his success.  With a new coach in Atlanta in Raheem Morris who might be inclined to learn from the team’s  past and run the ball to support an aging Matt Ryan, Gurley might have a chance at his still young age of 26 to resurrect his career.  If the season pans out for him and he returns at 75-80% of his prime self,  maybe earning a contract extension, this offense with frightening receivers and a still effective Ryan could give Gurley a second life and who knows maybe one more run to the Super Bowl next year.