With a somewhat frightening start to the NFL for Week 4, we did get to see action this weekend. Who knows how long it will last, but here are my takeaways.
As someone who drafted Baker Mayfield as my starting quarterback last year in fantasy, along with Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb, I of course avoided the Browns at all cost this year. On Sunday, the Browns scored 49 points on an admittedly horrendous Dallas defense, but one that nonetheless isn’t without talent. This was the third game the Browns scored over 30 points after a predictable low output in week one, a feat they haven’t accomplished since the Nixon administration. This output however, did not feature Mayfield lighting up a secondary with his two stud receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, but instead the Browns hauled ass for 307 yards on the ground, despite an early injury to Chubb. Obviously Kareem Hunt is possibly the best backup running back in NFL history so he picked up the slack, but the Browns also rolled out D’Earnest Johnson and Dontrell Hilliard, both undrafted free agents, and even got Beckham the ball on a divine TD run of a trick play. Despite this success and honestly the game wasn’t as close as the scoreline indicated, Mayfield only passed for 165 yards on 30 attempts with 2 touchdowns. With the Browns success this year now at 3-1, Mayfield’s really underwhelmed and seems like a game manager at the moment. He missed a lot of throws yesterday when the Browns line wasn’t manhandling the Cowboys and when I watched him live against the Ravens during his rookie year, I never thought he’d be missing those throws. New coach Kevin Stefanski is putting Baker in the best position to succeed, rolling him out with bootlegs on passing plays, but the eye test on Sunday showed me that Baker still isn’t comfortable throwing in the pocket. Many of his overthrows or misses were from the pocket, whereas he had more success throwing on the run. Cleveland’s biggest problem last year, other than the lack of a real coach, was the offensive line. Baker was one of the most blitzed and hurried quarterbacks last year and his considerable dip in production was likely attributable as much to this fact as it was the coach. This year, the Browns made considerable improvements on the offensive lines through free agent Jack Conklin and 10th overall pick Jedrick Wills, but Baker still seems traumatized by last year and will need to work through it before he can really be relied upon to win them games. I’m glad they’re doing well finally, but until Baker wins them a game, this team is severely limited against superior competition.
Those of us lucky enough to watch the Chiefs Pats, looking for an offensive explosion, were instead treated to an old fashioned defensive knockdown dragout that threatened to set the offensive explosion this year back into the 70s. Until the end of the 3rd quarter with score 6-3 in the Chiefs favor, the Pats held them to only 188 yards of offense, before Mahomes finally found Tyreek Hill for a touchdown after an 85 yard drive. While the Pats held down Mahomes as long as they could, I want to talk about possibly the most underrated defense in the NFL right now, the Chiefs. I can’t say the Chiefs are statistically lighting up the NFL from a defensive standpoint; they’re 5th best in passing yards allowed, 3rd in passing TDs and 2nd in points allowed which is good, but in defense coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s second year the Chiefs are beginning to look, at least from a visual standpoint, a suffocating force like those Spagnuolo’s led before. Even without Chris Jones, arguably their best defensive player, the Chiefs forced four turnovers, an unusual line against a Belichick team, regardless of the QB. New England went to the ground game to hide Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham, gaining 185 yards, but the Chiefs seemed to be comfortable letting them do that, knowing that at some point Hoyer or Stidham would be forced to make a play. If you didn’t watch the game, they didn’t make plays and in fact threw 3 interceptions between them including a pick six. Before this game, the Chiefs allowed exactly 20 points to each team in their previous four games, which included the potent Texans and Ravens offenses. In week 1, Deshaun Watson looked troubled by pressure and couldn’t get into any rhythm with his offense. I assumed as the first game that with no DeAndre Hopkins and aCOVID offseason that the timing with new players wasn’t there. After the Ravens game, I really started to notice this defense, because they held the second best team in the NFL to 228 yards total and only 20 points which included a return touchdown. Lamar Jackson rushed for 83 yards because I mean he wasn’t going to do nothing, but he only threw for 97 yards and just like the Texans, the entire Ravens offense seemed completely out of sorts because of what the Chiefs were doing. With an upcoming schedule that includes the Raiders twice, the Broncos, Jets and Panthers, the Chiefs will likely go 10-0. When the season starts getting longer and colder, I won’t be surprised if Mahomes comfortably runs the offense with no sort of frenetics necessary because his defense will be making those antics moot.
Like certain football writers I follow, I don’t trust quarterbacks over 6’6”. Too many examples from Derek Andersen to Ryan Mallett, Paxton Lynch, Mike Glennon and of course Brock Osweiler have sullied the tall men as viable QB options in the NFL, seemingly just too tall to be successful for whatever reason. In theory, which I don’t think has been studied, the limb length and quickness probably factor into arm release, along with the dip in athleticism these lumbering giants seemed doomed with. So when I first heard about Justin Herbert as a potential high pick, I naturally assumed he wouldn’t work out. He comes from Oregon, where glorious college QBs have had minimal success save for Dan Fouts (wish it happened for you Darron Thomas) and in the admittedly few games in college I watched of his, he looked timid and lethargic as these leggy QBs often do. Three games into his pro tenure after being forced into action right before his first game, I don’t think I’m ready to anoint him for anything, but I’ll admit there’s a chance I’m wrong in the long term. Herbert’s first start was against what I think is a great defense in Kansas City and he had no problem passing against them, going for 311 yards with a passing TD, a rushing TD and yes, a bad interception. Herbert had another similar game against the Panthers the following week as the Chargers failed again to get things going against another tough defense, but not because Herbert played particularly poorly. Sunday, Herbert really came out to all of us as a competent rookie who’s going to keep this lackluster team in games and make them a really fun team to watch this year. Guyton, Johnson, Parham; immortal names of Chargers lore, all caught long touchdown bombs from Herbert against the stingy Bucs defense this past week. Herbert, who in college looked reticent to get after it, took a few hits on Sunday and has generally looked competent, standing in the pocket delivering dimes or taking hits when he takes off running. Despite his height, he doesn’t look nearly the rigid Ichabod on scrambles as he avoids defenders. I often say that some tall athletes look tall just by seeing their face. Others though, just look like normal, actual human beings, not the meta humans they really are and their movements reflect it. If you see a picture of Blake Griffin, he may appear tall, but only when you have scale, such as Chris Paul standing next to him. Kevin Garnett looks taller than he actually is in his player profile picture. What I’ve seen from Herbert from an athleticism and movement perspective indicates, that while his height is that of other slow release, trudging behemoths, he moves like a much shorter man. While scrambling is important, it’s nothing compared to his ability to move in the pocket, which at this point is quick enough for him to get the ball out before the pass rush is there. He seen a fair bit of pressure in his first three games, currently getting pressured 30.8% of the time, 5th most in the NFL, but whereas the old, garganguant QB of my Ravens Joe Flacco went down in the pocket like a poorly build Jenga tower, Herbert slides and slicks his way to positive plays when the pocket is collapsing. I’m happy I might be wrong about this guy, because he looks to be a really unique player.
I haven’t really watched the Bengals this year, but I do want to talk about a skill that I noticed with Joe Burrow that I believe he has in common with Brady, Brees and Rodgers. It’s selling play action when the Bengals do a run play. He’s looked quite good in general, at least confident in all the Bengals games and despite their record, he’s probably the real deal and we’ll be talking about him as either an MVP in two years or as Deshaun Watson’s successor as brilliance stuck in an uninspiring mire of a team situation. Seriously watch him on this play; I can’t watch it without focusing on him because I think he still has the ball and it wasn’t the only time on Sunday he hoodwinked the defense with his movement. His skill with this stuck out to me as much as anything and I thought it was interesting. It factors into my theory that great quarterbacks move in the same way, especially in the pocket. They have a sort of spatial awareness and command of their body language that reflects in their play. Jared Goff doesn’t have this by the way and I think that’s borne out over his career; I’ll never believe that guy will be good. Joe Burrow does and I think the Bengals will be back to relevance shortly.
Bo's Gamut 